Quelle: What We Got Wrong In Our 2015 U.K. General Election Model | FiveThirtyEight
Nice take down of someone’s own work. If only more people would be so honest.
Quelle: What We Got Wrong In Our 2015 U.K. General Election Model | FiveThirtyEight
Nice take down of someone’s own work. If only more people would be so honest.
I went to bed last night living the nightmare of David Cameron and the Conservatives being predicted to win the UK 2015 General Election. Woke up this morning to find that the nightmare will last another five years. I, like many others, thought that the exit polls must have been wrong based on a seemingly vanishingly small number of people asked (22,000 or about 35 per Seat) and the fact that the exit polls differed so dramatically to the pre-election polls.
But, let me look on the bright side. Those exit poll people have gotten fantastically good at the job. Predicting the outcome with such accuracy was unknown earlier. This is a testament to the science upon which the pollsters base their methods and predictions.
banksy auf Twitter: „http://t.co/bcdJ9JA7Om“.
A wonderful visualisation of how we see and interpret the world.
It would appear that the original posting of this sign has disappeared, sadly.
Here, in case the link get’s restricted, the link to the article about the article that has already disappeared…
We offer three kinds of service/ Wir bieten 3 Servicearten an | klein.multimediadesign.
I was just talking to somebody and they told me they were on their way to Japan for two weeks.
„Have you ever been to Japan“ they asked?
„No“ I replied, „but I have a friend who is a real Japanophile and he even took part of his holiday while there to spend some time clearing up after The Tsunami and Fukushima“ I said proudly.
„I helped as well“ they said with even more pride because they had themselves done something.
„Oh?“ I asked
„Yes, I sent some crystals, they help with cleaning up as well“ …
Mental sound of my brain crashing gears, trying to engage reverse.
I look again, sometimes I’m wrong and you *can* tell a book by its cover..
Even as I write my mind is telling me it has been ambushed. I was made so unsure I had to check if I should write „its“ or „it’s“. I keep being presented images of Amethysts and Quartz Crystals dressed in overalls pushing a street cleaner’s cart or cleaning the air by inhaling „radiation“.
This piece by Paul Graham has a blindingly obvious take on immigration and yet so many people don’t see it because of their built-in biases, biases that they don’t even know they have.
Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In.
However, there is a darker side to the piece…
“And the world could use a little less human and a little more divine right now.” is a quote from the following, informative and useful, piece:
http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/10-things/10-immutable-laws-of-mistakes
There are four “Clarke’s Laws” and the third of them is:
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Now, I have been watching and reading various pro-and-contra postings about medicine with increasing concerns and I think I Arthur C. Clarke’s law can be updated as follows.
Any sufficiently advanced technocracy is indistinguishable from religion.
This is becoming increasingly relevant as we see more-and-more attacks on experts using the “that’s what you call a fact but really it’s only a belief” tactic. These people are effectively choosing one belief system over what they see as another belief system (for example, science based medicine.) These people are as far removed from the inner workings of science and its products as they are from the inner thoughts of whoever wrote the religious texts in the past. For them there is an unconcious choice between “faiths” and inevitably they choose a belief system which feels easier to understand and less threatening to their other belief systems.
A very good freind of mine asked me if I’d like to go and see the Pirates of Penzance in German in Germany…
Theater Münster – Spielplan > Kalender > Die Piraten von Penzance.
Unfortunately, I am allergic to the sound of English songs performed in German. My symptoms aren’t like those of people allergic to apples or to peanuts but my stomach does tend at least try to evacuate itself. This is, of course, a psychosomatic effect as nothing that gets into my ears can be detected as a possible poison by my stomach.
I’ve had this song in my head for ages now and someone decided that the next days are Homoeopathy Awareness Week, so, I thought I’d write the song down and get it out of my head. First a link:
Homeopathy Awareness Week, April 10th-16th. Get the facts on homeopathy..
Now the song, it’s based on the old song:
You put your left arm in,your left arm out,
in, out, shake it all about,
you do the hokey-cokey,
and you turn around,
that’s what it’s all about.
Repeat for various parts of the body ending with the whole body.
Now my song,
You put your Arnica in,
your Arnica out,
in, out, in, out,
shake it all about,
your do the hokey-cokey,
and you turn around,
That’s what Homoeopathy’s about.
I know, it doesn’t scan properly. I never said it was a good song, did I?